The Oregon Ducks (4-1) are hanging on by a thread for their own College Football Playoff expects.
After dominating Stanford in their Pac-12 debut last week, then the Ducks welcome the Cal Golden Bears (4-1) into the Autzen Zoo this Saturday (8:00 EST on FOX). In three seasons, the ground game has been dominated by Oregon and had an Justin Herbert at QB.
Theyve outscored Cal by 39 total points the last two decades, and have won nine of 10 against them. As 18-point favorites, the Ducks come in Using a defensive individuality and, according to MyBookie.
Cal lost their starting QB Chase Garbers (8 TDs-2 INT, 148.1 evaluation ) for the foreseeable future following a shoulder injury last week. The Bears have covered in their last five road games.
However, are their 10th-ranked pass defense be enough to cover contrary to the Ducks that are FEI? Together with Oregon QB Justin Herbert bending a ratio, theyll find.
Oregon will have a couple of big additions to their receiving corps that weekend, with Mycah Pittman (right shoulder) and Brenden Schooler (right foot) returning from injury. This will add your passing game that is ranked 44th in the FBS and depth that is crucial.
Herbert stays away from mistakes in the QB position, and itll be key versus a Cal team the greatest of whose unit is the secondary. Its enabled the Bears to maintain their opponents into an average of 13 points less than their particular PPG. A team such as Ole Miss put up 31 points at Alabama, but just 20 in the home.
Cals 24 points this week given up in a loss to Arizona State is that the. It had been the secondary which functioned for the catalyst within their big win over Washington earlier this season.
Though theyve just given up 18.6 PPG and have the 6th-best potency against large plays, their functionality on the road is even more striking. Dating back to the start of the year, coach Justin Wilcoxs bunch allows all 17.3 PPG as the outside team.
The one problem is, Oregon has been the only staff to place over 40 points (42) on Cal in this time period. Herbert, leading the countrys 17th-best crime on downs, is the reason for it.
However, the run game has not started to churn from FBS teams and force Herbert to put most the strain on himself. He is working Although he can hand it. They arrived as the very ideal unit in the Pac, however, position 113th in the rate of 101st and success in down sack speed of opponent.
It could open up chances for a Cal team with nine players. Three of these players (Kuony Deng, Luc Bequette, along with Cameron Goode) possess 2.5 sacks or more.
Cal had a stable hand at QB with Garbers, that kept a passer rating and threw eight TDs to two INTs. But he was not a lively danger at QB. Dont expect a team ranked 118th in S&P+ offense to get worse.
Devon Modster will substitute Garbers. He had a run at UCLA. He is not however a half-step supporting Garbers concerning talent but had a rough go of his brief little playing with time (6 to 15) this past season.
The Bears have been 126th in 112th plays . Therefore dont anticipate a strong ground game or perimeter gift to bond Modster out. A 100th-ranked scoring offense isnt going to transform immediately, and definitely not against the powerful late-down pass hurry (ranked 24th) of those Ducks.
Oregon still has work to do after giving up healthy chunks of yards on 1st down, however they possess the athletes all over to swarm the Bears.
As Oregons d-line ranks 111th cal could have had an advantage in situations. But the Bears o-line (101st) is nearly as putrid in this area since they are.
They scored at Washington with the capability to get to the quarterback and the talent gap, dont anticipate Cal to get over the 20 things.
This games over/under now sits in 46 things, which appears low. But Oregon wentunder in half of its last seven, and Cal remains beneath nine of 10.
That leaves a space for Oregon to move up by 18 or more around Cal. Yesthe Bears have firepower. But they conquer against and also a scoring D. that is top-25 and a Washington club together
This group, with the schemes completely in-place of Wilcox, can defy the onslaught from some other Pac-12 opponent. They have not given up over 24 points in a road game since the 2017 year old.
Oregon could have the 7th-best scoring defense. But its a stat the past three weeks, compiled by competitions that are sorry. This game wont really be the 7-6 Redbox Bowl game Oregon won. But its a game which will stay shut until the shield of the Cal wears down from being on the area .
Herbert gets the precision to make a toss when this occurs. It will not come until late, though, providing Cal the cover.
Prediction: Oregon (21) — California (10)
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