Jasons 2019 NFL picks record through Week 6: 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
Imagine if we told you that the Minnesota Vikings have been the staff from the NFL? Hey, dont look at us: Football Outsiders have Minnesota rated No. 4 in DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 defense, No. 14 special teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins doesnt hold water. Hes No. 8 overall in death DVOA, three areas better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers do not lie.
Speaking of figures, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) may have some gambling significance as 1-point road faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, both these North teams are rewarding thus far. We may get more value in thebelow today that the entire world has moved out of 44 to as high as 46 on the NFL odds board.
Let us make sure were on the Perfect track by Taking a Look at the projections, before we break down our decisions:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –two
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 total
As we guessed. There isnt much gain margin to work with for your spread, which is standard for an NFL match if you go for Nate Silvers crew. Jeff Sagarins figures are somewhat more bullish on Minnesota; we are quoting his eigenvector spread, but his recent disperse for the Vikes is 2.94, that gets us near this 2-point margin were searching for. Note that we are very close to the number 3 as well.
Obviously, if we are serious about investing, whenever theyre within our favor, we will need to jump on those opening lines. The Vikings started at once a week — but only in $58 a soda , in accordance with the expanded consensus reports prior to the sharps up them. Little wager, small perimeter.
That line move on the complete is somewhat interesting. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points a game last year to 22.4, and theunder is 49-43 (53.3 percent) round the league, so auto-betting that theover to your NFL picks does not hold water right today — unless youre confident therell be some regression to the expression, possibly in the kicking game.
Also, the matchup on the floor points toward a lower scoring game. The Lions rank No. 14 overall in DVOA, but just No. 21 on crime compared to No. 12 on protection (and moment on specific teams). Then youve got all that running across the Vikings do.
In regards to that total, however were looking at a little window between the projections and the odds. Let us follow the sharps, place Minnesota in our picks and as always, will the prolate spheroid function together with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) at 5Dimes
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