Jasons 2019 NFL picks 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
Imagine if we told you that the Minnesota Vikings were the team from the NFL? Hey, dont look at usFootball Outsiders possess Minnesota rated No. 4 at DVOA (No. 5 offense, No. 6 shield, No. 14 special teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all of that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins doesnt hold water. He is No. 8 overall in death DVOA, three areas better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers do not lie.
Speaking of numbers, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) could have some gambling value as 1-point road faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, both these North teams are rewarding thus far. We might get more value in theunder now that the amount has transferred out of 44 to as large as 46 on the NFL likelihood board.
Let us be sure we are on the Perfect track by looking at the projections, before we break down our options:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –2
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 complete
As we guessed. If you go for the team of Nate Silver, there isnt much gain margin to utilize for your spread, which is normal to get the NFL match. Jeff Sagarins numbers are more bullish on Minnesota; we are quoting his eigenvector disperse, but his latest disperse for the Vikes is 2.94, that still gets us close to that 2-point margin we are searching for. Note that were very near the number 3.
Naturally, if we are serious about investing, whenever theyre in our favor, we need to jump on these opening lines. The Vikings started as a selectem at once again — but only in $58 a pop up, based on the expanded consensus reports prior to the sharps gobbled them up. Small wager, margin.
On-line proceed to the complete is somewhat intriguing. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points per game last year to 22.4, along with theunder is currently 49-43 (53.3 percent) throughout the league, so auto-betting theover for your NFL picks does not hold water right now — unless you are confident therell be some regression to the mean, possibly from the kicking game.
Also, the matchup on the ground things toward a lower scoring game. The Lions position No. 14 overall in DVOA, however just No. 21 on crime in contrast to No. 12 on defense (and moment on special teams). Then youve got all that running across the Vikings do.
In regards to this complete, 23, were looking at a little window between the projections and the real odds. Let us follow the sharps, put Minnesota in our picks and as always, will the prolate spheroid be with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) at 5Dimes
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