Jasons 2019 NFL picks Album through Week 6: 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
What if we told one of that the Minnesota Vikings have been the staff from the NFL? Hey, dont look at us: Football Outsiders have Minnesota ranked No. 4 in DVOA (No. 5 offense, No. 6 defense, No. 14 specific teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins does not hold water. He is No. 8 overall in passing DVOA, three spots better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers dont lie.
Speaking of statistics, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) may have some gambling value as 1-point street faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, both these North teams are profitable thus far. We might get more value from theunder today that the complete has proceeded out of 44 to as large as 46 on the NFL chances board.
Let us be sure we are on the right track by Taking a Look at the projections, before we break down our picks:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –two
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 total
As we guessed. There is profit margin to work with for your spread, which can be normal to get an NFL regular-season match, if you go with Nate Silvers team. Jeff Sagarins figures are more bullish on Minnesota; were quoting his eigenvector disperse, but his latest propagate for the Vikes is 2.94, which still gets us near the 2-point margin we are looking for. Note that we are very near the magic number 3.
Needless to say, if were serious about investing, whenever theyre in our favor, we need to jump on these opening lines. The Vikings opened before the sharps gobbled up them — but only at $58 a pop up, in accordance with the consensus reports at once again. Small margin wager.
On-line move on the complete is quite interesting. Team scoring is down in 23.3 points a game annually to 22.4, along with theunder is currently 49-43 (53.3 percent) across the league, so auto-betting that theover to your NFL selections does not hold water right now — unless youre confident there will be some regression to the mean, perhaps in the kicking game.
Additionally, the matchup on the ground factors toward a lower scoring match. The Lions rank No. 14 total in DVOA, but only No. 21 on crime compared to No. 12 on protection (and second on specific teams). Then you have all that running around the Vikings do.
We are looking at a small window between the odds and the projections in regards to this complete. Lets follow the sharps, put Minnesota in our selections for a smallish sum, and as always, will the prolate spheroid be with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) at 5Dimes
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