Jasons 2019 NFL picks record through Week 6: 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
Imagine if we told you that the Minnesota Vikings have been the team in the NFL? Hey, do not look at usFootball Outsiders have Minnesota ranked No. 4 DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 defense, No. 14 specific teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all of that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins does not hold water. He is No. 8 overall in death DVOA, three spots better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers do not lie.
Speaking of statistics, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) might have some gambling significance as 1-point street faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, both these North teams are rewarding thus far. We might get more value from theunder now that the amount has proceeded out of 44 to as high as 46 on the NFL odds board.
Let us make sure were on the Perfect track by Taking a Look at the projections, before we break down our choices:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –two
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 total
As we supposed. There is not much gain margin to utilize for your spread, which is standard to get an NFL regular-season match, if you go for Nate Silvers crew. Jeff Sagarins amounts are somewhat more bullish on Minnesota; were quoting his eigenvector spread, but his latest spread for the Vikes is –2.94, that gets us near this 2-point margin we are searching for. Note that we are very near the number 3.
Needless to say, if we are serious about investing, we need to jump on those opening lines when theyre in our favor. The Vikings started prior to the sharps gobbled up them — but just at $58 a soda , in accordance with the consensus reports. Small wager, small margin.
On-line proceed to the total is interesting. Team scoring is down in 23.3 points a game annually to 22.4, and theunder is 49-43 (53.3 percent) throughout the league, therefore auto-betting that theabove for your NFL selections does not hold water right now — unless youre convinced there will be some regression to the mean, perhaps from the kicking game.
Also, the matchup on the floor factors toward a lower scoring match. The Lions position No. 14 total in DVOA, but only No. 21 on offense compared to No. 12 on protection (and moment on special teams). Then youve got all that running around the Vikings do; theyre fourth in attempts this year.
In regards to that total, 23, we are looking at a window between the projections and the odds. Lets follow the sharps, place Minnesota in our picks and as always, will the prolate spheroid function together with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) in 5Dimes
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